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everything's not awesome
(chorus)

everything's not awesome
but that doesn't mean that it's hopeless and bleak
everything's not awesome
but in my heart, i believe (i believe)

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It has been said that 97% of gamblers fail to turnover a profit over the long term. Everyone can get lucky and win a bet, even if it's a longshot on Exeter to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford at fixed odds of 50/1. The reason, of course, is because the "odds" or probabilities, literally speaking, are stacked against the punter, since as we know the bookmaker, who sets the odds, is not in the game for charitable purposes. Those odds contain an in-built advantage for the bookmaker such that if the punter bets blindly or randomly, he will surely lose over the long term, just as he would at any casino roulette wheel. That so many punters are actually losing long term is merely confirmation that the bookmaker's advantage, or overround is particularly difficult to overcome. The traditional approach to beating the bookmaker has been through forecasting and prediction techniques commonly referred to as rating systems in an attempt to reveal errors by the bookmaker. As such, the punter, here, is approaching sports betting in exactly the same manner as the bookmaker; that is to estimate the chance of a particular result and assign to it an odds value. If, after the bookmaker's in-built advantage has been taken into account, their odds are still more generous than the punter's, this presents what is termed a value bet. designer bags cyber monday

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i knew if we did not get reggie back he would not survive the night. coyotes would surely eat him and if by miracle he was found, i didn't think he would be returned. i was slowly trying to imagine losing him. i screamed. i screamed at simon. what would possess him to let reggie out? as it turns out, the noise i heard at the door was not mitch, but simon. reggie was barking at a deer he had seen outside and simon wanted to let him "get him". in mitch's defense, he did not know what simon was up to because he was busy changing bridget's diaper. 

amazon glitch Amazon admits it has a fake review problem, but does its best to spread the blame around in a new post detailing the issue. After numerous reports for years that the online retail giant is overrun with knock-off products and faked or farmed reviews, the company aims to look as if it is finally putting its foot down, but no new efforts or rules are discussed - rather, it is others that need to step up their work to keep Amazon safe. After the requisite preliminary palaver about being "obsessed with delighting customers" and all that, Amazon explains that it, like all big tech giants, uses automated systems to vet reviews before they go up. The company has always been cagey about the actual numbers, but in this post it drops a whopper: "In 2020, we stopped more than 200 million suspected fake reviews before they were ever seen by a customer." 200 million is a lot no matter how you look at it, but it's really a lot when you consider that Amazon told CNBC that same year that it "analyze[s] over 10 million review submissions weekly," which adds up to somewhere north of 520 million submissions yearly. These two Amazon-provided numbers suggest that a third of all reviews submitted, at a minimum, are rejected as fake. Hard numbers on Amazon's total reviews are hard to come by. Speaking to BuzzFeed, Amazon listing analysis site ReviewMeta's Tommy Noonan estimated that in 2020 Amazon hosted around 250 million reviews (of which, incidentally, he calculated about 9% were "unnatural"). But if over 500 million were submitted in 2020 and about 200 million of those were fake, that indicates a far larger total. I've asked Amazon for more precise information on this, and will update the post if I hear back, but the company is not communicative about these numbers in general. Groups organizing on social media numbering in the tens of thousands have been repeatedly pointed out as major contributors to the fake review ecosystem. Amazon writes that in the first quarter of 2020, it reported 300 such groups to the platforms hosting them, and the same period in 2021 it reported over 1,000. Takedown times have increased, but it's hard to take this increase as anything other than a thriving business model - certainly not something in the process of being stamped out. "We need coordinated assistance from consumer protection regulators around the world," Amazon writes. But the company lobbied forcefully and successfully against the INFORM act, which would have helped identify sellers with bad intent and add transparency to online marketplaces (strangely, Amazon has taken some of the actions it objects to independently). And that line is suspiciously absent when it is Amazon that consumers need to be protected against. "It is also critical that we hold bad actors-and the service providers that provide them with fake reviews-accountable for their activity," the post continues. But while lawsuits and partnerships with law enforcement are part of that, once again the call to "work together" rings hollow when Amazon itself is where the activity occurs and the company is in complete control of that ecosystem. Though it has banned some major players from the store, innumerable others flout the rules with impunity. designer bags cyber monday

i called reggie right away and that sweet puppy ran towards me. i even had to jump in front of mitch's car (he had just left the garage in search of him) to not run over reggie. i was so happy we found him. it could have been an awful night. but god and my veronica heard my prayer, it was an easy one to grant, and so it was. thank you both.

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