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But what about the subsequent burst of 600+ positive reviews? One might expect the Clinton PR machine to mobilize its own 'positive review brigade' in anticipation of , or in response to, a negative 'astroturfing' campaign against her book. One could even argue that it would be foolish not to manage perceptions of such a controversial and polarising book launch. If positive review spam is identified, should it also be deleted?
I tracked the number of Amazon reviews of 'What Happened' for a month after its launch on the new 'clean' book listing (the listings have since been merged but you can see my starting point here). Figure 3 below shows clear signs of 'burstiness'; the rate of reviewing decreases exponentially over the first month even while the rate of 5-star reviews remained consistently high.
If there is a text cluster that correlates with 'burstiness' – i.e. occurs more frequently in the reviews closest to the book launch date and/or occurs repeatedly within a short time frame – then that would suggest there are specific linguistic styles and/or strategies correlated with this deceptive reviewing behaviour. The existence of such a distinct deception cluster would strongly suggest that Clinton's PR team gamed the Amazon review system (understandably, in order to counter the negative campaign against the book). Alternatively, different reviewing strategies might be distributed randomly across the review corpus and unrelated to its proximity to the book launch date. This would weaken the argument that linguistic variation in the reviews is a potential deception cue. The two scenarios are illustrated in Figure 4 below:
Figure 4: Hypothetical illustration of how review text types (clusters) might be distributed over a 30 day period in the case of astroturfed fake reviews (top) or genuine positive reviews (bottom).
My prediction? Surely, Hillary Clinton's PR team would not so be so brazen as to solicit fake positive reviews in bulk and in an organised fashion. Yes, there were a disproportionate number of reviews written in the first few days but I believe this was a spontaneous groundswell of genuine support. I do expect there to be a few different types of linguistic review style, reflecting the different ways in which books can be reviewed (e.g. focus on book content; retell personal reading experience; address the reader – these are some of the review styles I presented at the ICAME39 (2018) conference in Tampere). However, if the support is spontaneous I would expect these review styles not to be correlated with burstiness or other deceptive phenomena but to occur randomly throughout the month.
Check back here in a few days for Part 2: Results and Discussion!
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